Kyle Larson and Chase Briscoe’s playoff hopes took a significant hit during the NASCAR playoff opener at Atlanta Motor Speedway. On lap 56, Larson lost control in Turn 2 and collided with the wall, with Briscoe unable to avoid him, resulting in both drivers finishing 37th and 38th. This early wreck severely damaged their chances of advancing in the playoffs.
Briscoe was the hardest hit, seeing his odds of advancing past the Round of 16 drop by 43.9 percentage points. His 16% chance of advancing is due to being 21 points below the elimination line, with his only hope being strong finishes at Bristol and Watkins Glen. A top-10 finish at either track could boost his odds to 41% or 46%, respectively, while top-10 results in both races would give him an 88% chance of moving forward. However, his margin for error is now slim.
Larson, though the cause of the wreck, fared better in terms of playoff chances. His odds of advancing dropped by just 10.3 percentage points, leaving him 15 points above the elimination line. Despite the poor result, his strong projections for the upcoming races, particularly at Bristol, keep him in the fight, though back-to-back poor finishes would drastically reduce his chances.
