The Florida Gators’ football season fast approaching, head coach Billy Napier finds himself under significant pressure, at least from the outside, where even Paris Hilton might say, “That’s hot.” While external expectations are high, the internal outlook in Gainesville might differ. Given the substantial cost of his buyout, it would likely take a disastrous season for the decision-makers to seriously consider parting ways with Napier after this year.
With this in mind, there are a few realistic scenarios where Napier could retain his position through the 2025 season. One key factor is Florida’s performance against LSU and Ole Miss. If we look ahead to the 2024 season, it’s possible it could unfold similarly to 2023. Last year, Florida started strong with a 5-2 record, only to falter with five consecutive losses.
For 2024, given Florida’s front-loaded schedule, the team needs to achieve at least a 5-2 record heading into their second bye week. This is crucial because, after the bye, the Gators face a daunting stretch with five straight games against opponents ranked in the top 15. If Florida is 4-3 or worse by the bye, the situation becomes much more precarious. Even if they start 7-0, another late-season collapse with five straight losses would seriously jeopardize Napier’s future.
The games against Georgia and Texas, the first two after the bye, will be especially challenging, with Florida expected to be heavy underdogs in both. This places enormous importance on the home games against LSU and Ole Miss. Winning at least one of these could secure Florida a bowl game appearance and likely result in a seven-win season. However, if they lose both, the Gators could find themselves heading into their final game against FSU with a four-game losing streak, further intensifying the pressure on Napier.